http://jc316.blogspot.com/2018/06/p.html
How to Play Suited Connectors
http://www.suntzupoker.com/playing-suited-connectors.aspx
The probability of hitting an open-ended or a double belly buster straight draw on the flop is 10.45% (8.6 to 1).
Odds of flopping a flush draw is 8.1 to 1 (10.94%).
http://www.suntzupoker.com/double-gutshot-straight-draw.aspx
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-and-outs
https://www.flopturnriver.com/poker-strategy/pyroxenes-common-flop-odds-19147/#text
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play out every Scenario
there are finite number
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When you playing at the tables your need
cognitive shortcuts
mental shortcuts
quick and easy calculations that you can do quick and easy
good enough
good enough to make a decision
begin with the end / goal in mind
preflop
what are you going to do with your private cards ?
objective on the flop
ROI
strategy
what do you want to hit on the flop
to be a success
on the flop
what are you going to
Decisions Tree
more people in the hand / round
your chip stack
their chip stack
ROI
payout and probability
10 players
you need Three of a kind or better
heads up
Ace high card
any pair
may be good
what is a strong hand
less people at the table
the standard is lower
you know it all
you just need to get into game shape
add Body Language
read them = Input
deceive them = Output
add opponents' "Ranges"
Looks like Pro players
play with No clear idea
what they are trying to achieve
the also commit to easy
for me
each Node is a separate decision
Pro players keep ~ Psychology of consistency
holding on to a hand
because they are invested
embarrassment
play like a robot / AI / Terminator
add Psychology
I prefer deception
Sniper
play against the worst players
you also need to get better at reading cards
use
http://www.table-games-online.com/ultimate-texas-holdem/
as practice
say it ALoud
read the board
also memorize rank
teach it
in 2003
you said that you could be the best
Poker
Stocks
Sports
and It's true
do it
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You have a pair 22
What do you want on the flop ?
I want three of a kind
22-2
this is my goal
how much am I willing to pay
10.775 set 22-2
0.735 full house 22-2 K K
0.245 quads
= 11.755 %
1 / 0.11755 = 8.507 = 8.5
1 out of 8.5
Quick and Easy Cognitive Mental ShortCuts
12 %
1 out of 8 times
12 / 8 = 20 mnemonic
what is the cost ?
let's say the preflop bet is $10
$10 x 8 = 80 dollars
then 80 dollars is the cost
You need to able to extract over 80 dollars from your opponents
to make the bet
look the chip stack of your opponents
you want multiple players with big chip stacks
and you need adequate chip stack to extract the money
in NL poker
on the flop
consider
flush / flush draw
straight / straight draw
overset is rare
if you have a
board pair helps you ~ you will have a full house
if you have a full house
you already have the flush and straight beat
look out for the straight
you get blind sided by the straight
which means you should try to play straights
low straights are deceptive
conceal your bets
let other people raise
and you call
when you call a raise
there is a bigger range
write a guidebook
write it out
Scenarios
there are a finite number of Scenarios
Decision Tree
plus Quantum Probability Distribution
plus unknown
add ranges
you have to watch the poker videos
A poker hand which refers to a specific type of Three of a Kind. In Texas Hold’em, a set is when a card on the board matches one of the player’s hole cards when they have a pocket pair. You will flop a set about 11% of the time.
Flopping set over set is rare in poker.
http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag86/
http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag86/
http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag86/
Brian Alspach
Brian Alspach
Brian Alspach
http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/
______________
https://www.mypokercoaching.com/poker-odds-calculator-outs-math/
POKER ODDS OF HITTING OVER CARD WHILE HAVING A PAIR
QQ
KK
are at the 50%
overcard
88 87% ~ 88%
this is important
question
AA is great
KK is almost as good
when does it convert to 22
Probability to see an over card for your pocket pair
Quanta Quantum
consider the number of opponents
J J there is a 567 percent chance of over card on flop
then you are DEAD with ten players
A K Q people play these card
you got to play like you are dead
AA try to go all in preflop
if you go to flop without a raise
then the AA is dangerous for you
AA is worse than AK-A
because with AA, there three board cards that could hurt you
AA is weak with no preflop raise, at a full table
consider folding
hidden threats
the opponent could have Set XX-X, two pair, straight, flush
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KK
Ace on the flop 23 percent of the time
No Ace on the flop is the goal 77 percent
1 / 0.77 = 1.3 times
Cost
$10 x 1.3 = $13 dollars
if you can extract $130 dollars
you are willing to pay $100
Queen Queen 41 %
Queen Queen you are will into pay 100
if you can extract 170
JJ you need to extract 232
JJ = 22
QQ is borderline / dangerous
this is an objective way to determine
the cost you are willing to pay
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preflop
Big Blind has Position
treat each node separate
but also look ahead
I like Ace Ace on the Big Blind
that is the best position for Ace Ace
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J 10
5 4
both have the highest probability
of hitting straight or straight draw on Flop
But J10 all straights are Nuts / Best / Unbeatable Straight
54 has one weak straight
876 - 54 this is weak
10 - 9 and 10 - 5 would beat you
_______________________
treat each Node differently
straights are deceptive
more deceptive than flush
straights could have better ROI
especially if there is No flush or board pair
____________________________
PreFlop
J 10
11 percent chance of hitting straight or draw on flop
11 / 9
$10
cost 90 dollars
you get straight draw on the flop
look at the POT plus the opponents' chip stack
and your chip stack
look at the pot
cost to see turn 1/3
$30
cost to see river 1/3
$30
so if the ROI is good
take it all the way to the river
what if you miss the straight on the river
FOLD ~ throw it away
90 + 30 + 30 = $150
cost is high
but the straight is deceptive
try to get in cheap
would i call a raise
if the cost is not too high
there is alot of money in the pot
there are 4 nodes
preflop
flop
turn
river
if you miss on the river ~ throw it away
http://jc316.blogspot.com/2018/06/p.html
________________________
Ace - King
1 / 3
getting AK-A or AK-K
or Better
if you are ok with AK-A or AK-K
then the cost is
$30
for a $10 bet
getting AK-A or AK-K is 27 percent
1 / 4
if you miss on the flop
AK has 4 outs
the rule of 4
4 x 8 outs = 32 % = 1/3
4 outs = 1 / 6
1 / 12 turn
1 / 12 river
at a full table
if AK misses the flop
you dead - throw it away
it's over
at a full table
AK is a calling hand
Not a raising hand
chess does Not occur until you get the one on one heads up
work it all out before going back to the tables
teach it
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http://www.suntzupoker.com/poker-odds.aspx
http://www.suntzupoker.com/poker-odds.aspx
http://pi.math.cornell.edu/~mec/2006-2007/Probability/Texasholdemsol.htm
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-and-outs
https://www.pokerlistings.com/online-poker-odds-calculator
_________________-----
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-and-outs
https://www.cardschat.com/odds-for-dummies.php
https://www.cardschat.com/f57/odds-straight-flush-draw-flop-342177/
http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/drawing-odds/
https://poker.stackexchange.com/questions/6026/percentage-chance-of-flopping-straight-or-flush-draw-for-suited-connectors
https://www.partypoker.com/how-to-play/school/basics/key-facts.html
________________
how to limit losses
limit your chip stack
balance risk of busting out
and extracting profit from opponents' chip stack
this is important
for example,
one dollar table
$100
as the chip stack dwindles
reload
play against the Worst / Impaired
if the players are good, walk away
ADVANTAGE
Treasure Island
4 am
against 2 drunk dudes
__________________________
_____________________________
https://poker.stackexchange.com/questions/1203/pocket-pair-starting-hands-vs-probability-of-opponent-having-a-pocket-pair
http://www.sitandgoplanet.com/multitable/mtt_probability/Essential_Pre-Flop_Probability.html
http://www.thepokerbank.com/tools/odds-charts/all-in/
https://www.intmath.com/counting-probability/poker.php
_____________________
Pocket Cards / Private Cards / Hole Cards
22 - AA
play all pairs, all the time
AA is in a special categorize
go all in preflop
best position preflop is Big Blind
KK
threats - Ace on Board, pocket AA
your return on investment analysis
should focus on
Not AA
Not Ace on board
cost is Not AA + Not Ace on board
when there is an Ace on board,
there is good chance you are dead
because KK is already a made hand
with you raise preflop
if No preflop raise
AA = 22
it is a weak overpair
with three board cards that can beat you
AK-A is better because
space occupying lesion concept
you are using one of the board cards
JJ = 22
QQ is Questionable
_____________________
22
22 - 2 set
you can call a raise with 22
also you can play 22 at every position
_____________________
J10
try to get in cheap
J10 is in it's own category
J10 is the gold standard for straights
get in cheap
straight draw
go to turn/river if cheap
if expensive, or you miss the river
throw it away
_____________________
Ace suited
King suited
goal - flush / draw on the flop
try to get in cheap
i rather have a straight
straight is more deceptive
_____________________
high card no suited
AK
AQ
? AJ
? A10
KQ
you have worry about kicker
also opponents play usually play aces and kings
_____________________
Board Threats
Flush
Straight
Board Pair
don't worry about highly improbable
factor in by limiting your chip stack
also as you chip stack gets bigger
take money off the table
_____________________
there are only 4 strategies
Pairs
High cards
Straight
Flush
do Not blur strategies
don't give extra credit for pocket cards that combine strategies
for example,
54 suited at a full table
has only one strategy - Straight
give No extra credit for suited
no pair
no high card strategy
People want to play more cards
so they emotionally give more credit
if you are going for the flop
do Not use heads up rank
Heads up is a different decision tree
there is only one node
the decision is different
you have to separate the scenarios
head ups poker is a different system
_________________
if you get a 22-2 set on the flop
that there is flush draw or a straight draw
go all in on the flop to end it there
you have a hand
and you have 1/3 chance of improving on river/turn
in general, do Not raise
you want to see cards cheap
also it is deceptive
___________________
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem
https://www.partypoker.com/how-to-play/school/basics/starting-hands.html
https://se.unibet.com/poker/guides/which-poker-hands-should-i-play-and-why-1.694717
http://www.learn2holdem.com/poker-strategy/holdem-poker-starting-hands-advanced.htm
https://www.bicyclecards.com/how-to-play/basics-of-poker/
https://www.pokerlistings.com/strategy/how-not-to-suck-at-poker-play-fewer-hands
http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/holdem-heads-up-match-ups/
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools
http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/drawing-odds/
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem
PAIR
88 vs
AA 80 percent
88 vs
A 6
88 70
88 vs 36
88 80 percent
80
70
20
10 - 7
AK 2/3
A6 55
3 6 1/3
high card give advantage
66 or 55
two low cards 33
AA 80 percent
22 47 percent
poker rankings may not be consistent with how poker is actually played
22-2 strategy hits the sweet spot
______________
Heads up
write all the scenarios, and probabilities and memorize
https://www.cardschat.com/odds-for-dummies.php
https://www.pokerlistings.com/strategy/how-not-to-suck-at-poker-count-your-outs
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-and-outs
https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem
______________-
https://poker.stackexchange.com/questions/1203/pocket-pair-starting-hands-vs-probability-of-opponent-having-a-pocket-pair
http://www.thepokerbank.com/tools/odds-charts/all-in/
______________
http://jc316.blogspot.com/2018/06/p.html
