jc

Friday, June 15, 2018

World Cup Soccer

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls/

http://www.valuepunter.com/asianhandicap-table.htm

https://www.bettingexpert.com/academy/betting-fundamentals/betting-odds-explained

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-new-in-our-2017-18-club-soccer-predictions/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2018-world-cup-predictions-work/

http://www.espn.com/soccer/news/story/_/id/1873765

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/soccer-power-index/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/germany-takes-the-top-spot-in-soccer-rankings/

http://www.espnfc.com/fifa-world-cup/story/1865575/soccer-power-index-daily-update

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/global-club-soccer-rankings/

https://www.oddsshark.com/sportsbook-review

http://www.espn.com/soccer/table/_/league/fifa.world

http://www.espn.com/soccer/bracket

http://www.espn.com/soccer/scoreboard/_/league/FIFA.WORLD/date/20180614

http://www.espn.com/soccer/scoreboard

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/21589590/fc-100-best-men-players-managers-world-football

https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Poker Master

http://jc316.blogspot.com/2018/06/p.html

How to Play Suited Connectors

http://www.suntzupoker.com/playing-suited-connectors.aspx

The probability of hitting an open-ended or a double belly buster straight draw on the flop is 10.45% (8.6 to 1).

Odds of flopping a flush draw is 8.1 to 1 (10.94%).

http://www.suntzupoker.com/double-gutshot-straight-draw.aspx

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-and-outs

https://www.flopturnriver.com/poker-strategy/pyroxenes-common-flop-odds-19147/#text

_______

play out every Scenario

there are finite number

_______

When you playing at the tables your need
cognitive shortcuts
mental shortcuts
quick and easy calculations that you can do quick and easy
good enough
good enough to make a decision

begin with the end / goal in mind

preflop
what are you going to do with your private cards ?
objective on the flop
ROI
strategy
what do you want to hit on the flop
to be a success

on the flop
what are you going to

Decisions Tree

more people in the hand / round
your chip stack
their chip stack
ROI
payout and probability

10 players
you need Three of a kind or better

heads up
Ace high card
any pair
may be good

what is a strong hand
less people at the table
the standard is lower

you know it all
you just need to get into game shape

add Body Language
read them = Input
deceive them = Output

add opponents' "Ranges"

Looks like Pro players
play with No clear idea
what they are trying to achieve

the also commit to easy

for me
each Node is a separate decision

Pro players keep ~ Psychology of consistency
holding on to a hand
because they are invested

embarrassment

play like a robot / AI / Terminator

add Psychology

I prefer deception
Sniper

play against the worst players

you also need to get better at reading cards

use
http://www.table-games-online.com/ultimate-texas-holdem/
as practice
say it ALoud
read the board

also memorize rank
teach it

in 2003
you said that you could be the best
Poker
Stocks
Sports
and It's true
do it

_______

You have a pair 22

What do you want on the flop ?
I want three of a kind
22-2
this is my goal

how much am I willing to pay

10.775 set 22-2
0.735 full house 22-2 K K
0.245 quads

= 11.755 %

1 / 0.11755 = 8.507 = 8.5

1 out of 8.5

Quick and Easy Cognitive Mental ShortCuts

12 %

1 out of 8 times

12 / 8 = 20 mnemonic

what is the cost ?

let's say the preflop bet is $10
$10 x 8 = 80 dollars

then 80 dollars is the cost

You need to able to extract over 80 dollars from your opponents
to make the bet

look the chip stack of your opponents
you want multiple players with big chip stacks

and you need adequate chip stack to extract the money
in NL poker

on the flop
consider
flush / flush draw
straight / straight draw

overset is rare

if you have a

board pair helps you ~ you will have a full house
if you have a full house
you already have the flush and straight beat

look out for the straight
you get blind sided by the straight
which means you should try to play straights

low straights are deceptive

conceal your bets
let other people raise
and you call

when you call a raise
there is a bigger range

write a guidebook
write it out

Scenarios
there are a finite number of Scenarios

Decision Tree
plus Quantum Probability Distribution
plus unknown

add ranges
you have to watch the poker videos

A poker hand which refers to a specific type of Three of a Kind. In Texas Hold’em, a set is when a card on the board matches one of the player’s hole cards when they have a pocket pair. You will flop a set about 11% of the time.

Flopping set over set is rare in poker.

http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag86/

http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag86/

http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag86/

Brian Alspach

Brian Alspach

Brian Alspach

http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/

______________

https://www.mypokercoaching.com/poker-odds-calculator-outs-math/

POKER ODDS OF HITTING OVER CARD WHILE HAVING A PAIR

QQ
KK

are at the 50%
overcard

88 87% ~ 88%

this is important

question
AA is great
KK is almost as good
when does it convert to 22

Probability to see an over card for your pocket pair

Quanta Quantum

consider the number of opponents

J J there is a 567 percent chance of over card on flop
then you are DEAD with ten players
A K Q people play these card
you got to play like you are dead

AA try to go all in preflop

if you go to flop without a raise
then the AA is dangerous for you
AA is worse than AK-A
because with AA, there three board cards that could hurt you
AA is weak with no preflop raise, at a full table
consider folding

hidden threats
the opponent could have Set XX-X, two pair, straight, flush

______

KK
Ace on the flop 23 percent of the time

No Ace on the flop is the goal 77 percent

1 / 0.77 = 1.3 times

Cost
$10 x 1.3 = $13 dollars

if you can extract $130 dollars
you are willing to pay $100

Queen Queen 41 %
Queen Queen you are will into pay 100
if you can extract 170

JJ you need to extract 232

JJ = 22

QQ is borderline / dangerous

this is an objective way to determine
the cost you are willing to pay

_______

preflop

Big Blind has Position

treat each node separate

but also look ahead

I like Ace Ace on the Big Blind
that is the best position for Ace Ace

______________

J 10
5 4

both have the highest probability
of hitting straight or straight draw on Flop

But J10 all straights are Nuts / Best / Unbeatable Straight

54 has one weak straight

876 - 54 this is weak

10 - 9 and 10 - 5 would beat you

_______________________

treat each Node differently

straights are deceptive
more deceptive than flush

straights could have better ROI
especially if there is No flush or board pair

____________________________

PreFlop

J 10
11 percent chance of hitting straight or draw on flop

11 / 9

$10

cost 90 dollars

you get straight draw on the flop

look at the POT plus the opponents' chip stack
and your chip stack
look at the pot

cost to see turn 1/3
$30

cost to see river 1/3
$30

so if the ROI is good
take it all the way to the river

what if you miss the straight on the river
FOLD ~ throw it away

90 + 30 + 30 = $150

cost is high
but the straight is deceptive

try to get in cheap

would i call a raise
if the cost is not too high
there is alot of money in the pot

there are 4 nodes
preflop
flop
turn
river

if you miss on the river ~ throw it away

http://jc316.blogspot.com/2018/06/p.html

________________________

Ace - King

1 / 3
getting AK-A or AK-K
or Better

if you are ok with AK-A or AK-K
then the cost is
$30
for a $10 bet

getting AK-A or AK-K is 27 percent
1 / 4

if you miss on the flop
AK has 4 outs

the rule of 4
4 x 8 outs = 32 % = 1/3

4 outs = 1 / 6

1 / 12 turn

1 / 12 river

at a full table
if AK misses the flop
you dead - throw it away

it's over

at a full table
AK is a calling hand
Not a raising hand

chess does Not occur until you get the one on one heads up

work it all out before going back to the tables

teach it

______________

http://www.suntzupoker.com/poker-odds.aspx

http://www.suntzupoker.com/poker-odds.aspx

http://pi.math.cornell.edu/~mec/2006-2007/Probability/Texasholdemsol.htm

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-and-outs

https://www.pokerlistings.com/online-poker-odds-calculator

_________________-----

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-and-outs

https://www.cardschat.com/odds-for-dummies.php

https://www.cardschat.com/f57/odds-straight-flush-draw-flop-342177/

http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/drawing-odds/

https://poker.stackexchange.com/questions/6026/percentage-chance-of-flopping-straight-or-flush-draw-for-suited-connectors

https://www.partypoker.com/how-to-play/school/basics/key-facts.html

________________

how to limit losses

limit your chip stack

balance risk of busting out
and extracting profit from opponents' chip stack

this is important

for example,
one dollar table
$100

as the chip stack dwindles
reload

play against the Worst / Impaired

if the players are good, walk away
ADVANTAGE

Treasure Island
4 am
against 2 drunk dudes

__________________________

_____________________________

https://poker.stackexchange.com/questions/1203/pocket-pair-starting-hands-vs-probability-of-opponent-having-a-pocket-pair

http://www.sitandgoplanet.com/multitable/mtt_probability/Essential_Pre-Flop_Probability.html

http://www.thepokerbank.com/tools/odds-charts/all-in/

https://www.intmath.com/counting-probability/poker.php

_____________________

Pocket Cards / Private Cards / Hole Cards

22 - AA

play all pairs, all the time

AA is in a special categorize
go all in preflop
best position preflop is Big Blind

KK
threats - Ace on Board, pocket AA

your return on investment analysis
should focus on
Not AA
Not Ace on board

cost is Not AA + Not Ace on board

when there is an Ace on board,
there is good chance you are dead

because KK is already a made hand
with you raise preflop

if No preflop raise
AA = 22
it is a weak overpair
with three board cards that can beat you

AK-A is better because
space occupying lesion concept
you are using one of the board cards

JJ = 22

QQ is Questionable

_____________________

22

22 - 2 set

you can call a raise with 22

also you can play 22 at every position

_____________________

J10

try to get in cheap

J10 is in it's own category

J10 is the gold standard for straights

get in cheap

straight draw
go to turn/river if cheap

if expensive, or you miss the river
throw it away

_____________________

Ace suited
King suited

goal - flush / draw on the flop

try to get in cheap

i rather have a straight
straight is more deceptive

_____________________

high card no suited

AK
AQ
? AJ
? A10

KQ

you have worry about kicker

also opponents play usually play aces and kings

_____________________

Board Threats
Flush
Straight
Board Pair

don't worry about highly improbable
factor in by limiting your chip stack

also as you chip stack gets bigger
take money off the table

_____________________

there are only 4 strategies

Pairs

High cards

Straight

Flush

do Not blur strategies

don't give extra credit for pocket cards that combine strategies

for example,
54 suited at a full table
has only one strategy - Straight
give No extra credit for suited
no pair
no high card strategy

People want to play more cards
so they emotionally give more credit

if you are going for the flop
do Not use heads up rank

Heads up is a different decision tree
there is only one node
the decision is different

you have to separate the scenarios

head ups poker is a different system

_________________

if you get a 22-2 set on the flop
that there is flush draw or a straight draw
go all in on the flop to end it there

you have a hand
and you have 1/3 chance of improving on river/turn

in general, do Not raise
you want to see cards cheap
also it is deceptive

___________________

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem

https://www.partypoker.com/how-to-play/school/basics/starting-hands.html

https://se.unibet.com/poker/guides/which-poker-hands-should-i-play-and-why-1.694717

http://www.learn2holdem.com/poker-strategy/holdem-poker-starting-hands-advanced.htm

https://www.bicyclecards.com/how-to-play/basics-of-poker/

https://www.pokerlistings.com/strategy/how-not-to-suck-at-poker-play-fewer-hands

http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/holdem-heads-up-match-ups/

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools

http://www.pokerology.com/lessons/drawing-odds/

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem

PAIR

88 vs

AA 80 percent

88 vs

A 6

88 70

88 vs 36

88 80 percent

80
70
20

10 - 7

AK 2/3

A6 55

3 6 1/3

high card give advantage
66 or 55

two low cards 33

AA 80 percent

22 47 percent

poker rankings may not be consistent with how poker is actually played

22-2 strategy hits the sweet spot

______________

Heads up
write all the scenarios, and probabilities and memorize

https://www.cardschat.com/odds-for-dummies.php

https://www.pokerlistings.com/strategy/how-not-to-suck-at-poker-count-your-outs

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-and-outs

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem

______________-

https://poker.stackexchange.com/questions/1203/pocket-pair-starting-hands-vs-probability-of-opponent-having-a-pocket-pair

http://www.thepokerbank.com/tools/odds-charts/all-in/

______________

http://jc316.blogspot.com/2018/06/p.html

Monday, June 11, 2018

Mark Twain

M. D. Km

D. R. Km

D.R.K.

DK Ultra

MD Km LLC

general public ~ Science of Success
Succeed w/ Science
Success Science
SccSci
Captivate

industry specific
pharma
cars

M.D. = Massive Dynamic
Massive Dynamic Km LLC

Km Incorporated = Kim Incorporated

M 123
D 567
K 345656

https://www.copyright.gov/fls/fl101.pdf

3D
3 dimensional
HD
3 dimensions
3 degrees
3rd degree

3D
3D
3 Degrees
MD/MBA/ChemE

MD No dots, and put in the front

MD K

Mac
Master
McDavid
MacKinnon
Mastro

D
Doctor
Daddy, MacDaddy
Dominator

MD = MC

MC Ren

Kimble

word play

Rick Ross
Hugo Boss
King

MD Rick
MD Rik
MD Rich
DK

D. Kay

Hey Dr. Kay

ABC
Ambulate / Action / Walk / Motion / Exercise / Movement
Breathe, deep controlled breathing
C = Control

Focus on what what you can control
Control, Confidence

Christ, Our Father, nonvain repetitions
like the rosary but with only our fathers
hail marys are Not in the Gospelsx4

Move On

"Forgive yourself"
Forgive the past
Learn the lessons, the forget it, forgive it, move on

Control
Positive
Multi Taks
Speed
Speed
Speed

The Zone = Flow
Induce it

The Jesus Connection

- No S Cvy
- No Darwin
write around it

textbook / cliff notes format

also include
Book Summaries - like in MBA school
This is a service
It also shows that you have read all these books

Added Bonus
Vanessa is format
More headings

Write for Jon Snow and Kto

I like the Twitter summary by Daniel Pink

Great 8 ~ 8 game changing, life enhancing scientific discoveries that will help you suceed and be happy ~ omega 3, neuroplasticity, mind/body power pose, mindset positive, like to be liked smile listen, exercise, breathing ~ pick the top 8

be healthy and happy
physically and mentally

book reviews / summary
twitter
glossary
anatomy

the guy that wrote the MBA book, and he did Not get an MBA

Sunday, June 10, 2018

Friday, June 8, 2018

Light Bulb / Book / Brain Lock

1
Identify acknowledge note
Negative behavior, action, thought, mood, etc

for example, depression, anxiety, worry, doubt, laziness, anger, slowness, fear, vice

make a list
write down all the negative stuff in your life

2
Verbalize it, call it out
in your mind, say it, write it
saying it best

For example,
Satan, Depression, Anxiety

Jesus vs Satan Matthew / Luke 4

3
Once you have Identified it, and Verbalized it,
called it out ~
Take corrective action asap

Use the Negative as a Trigger
Calling it out ~ Trigger
Shift Gears

Trigger
Shift Gears
ASAP

4
Take one Deep Breath
then do a session of controlled deep breathing
this is free, always available, and can be done anywhere

Power Pose
Walk

5
Redirect
Positive / Productive
Prayer
Our Father
Rosary
Sing a song
Power Pose
Take a walk
Do something else, anything else that is non-negative
write
watch a funny movie
listen to happy music
read the Bible

Neutral is OK

competitive neuroplasticity

take advantage of the limitations of the brain
and neuroplasiticity

also the brain cannot do two things at the same time
in general

if you are a multi-tasker
it is hard to do two things at one time

maybe two conscious things at one time

anyway suppress the negative

some Negative stuff may be productive
for example, fear in the face of a charging bull

regret at a lost
makes you analyze, learn, and valuation

BUT prolonged Negative is Counter productive
and can be damaging because of negative neuroplasticity

extract the positive
and move on ASAP

learn from losses / negative
what can we learn
what are the lessons
analyze it
extract the lesson
do a valuation
remember the lessons
incorporate it into your process
then move on

Extract the positive from the negative
then move on

outside - in
inside - out
active and passive
motor
physical

facial feedback

Doidge
Brain Lock

___

Book Idea

Summarize all the Science
for Success
Success science
do a literature review for the general public
and for yourself

Tier it

Top Tier
Simple, Practical, Understandable

Put the Key Point first

then support it

Section by section

this will be easy to write

D.R.K
MD/MBA
3 Degrees
MD / ChemE / MBA

Thursday, June 7, 2018

i fixed the 2011 MAC

https://www.macworld.com/article/3092900/macs/how-to-create-a-bootable-macos-sierra-installer-drive.html

https://www.macworld.com/article/3204672/macs/how-to-create-a-bootable-macos-high-sierra-installer-drive.html

https://macdaddy.io/install-disk-creator/

http://www.idownloadblog.com/2015/09/14/how-to-start-up-mac-from-bootable-media/

http://www.crucial.com/ProductDisplay?urlRequestType=Base&catalogId=10151&categoryId=&productId=207064&urlLangId=-1&langId=-1&top_category=&parent_category_rn=&storeId=10151

https://eshop.macsales.com/item/OWC/DIYIMACHDD11/

https://eshop.macsales.com/item/OWC/DIDIMACHDD11/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwl7nYBRCwARIsAL7O7dGQSvvVyG8CiYr6qF2DhvnbrV0J6SrLZpgLDzn6o7j_tuTX9dpnIUgaApg0EALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

https://eshop.macsales.com/item/OWC/DIYIM27SSD11/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=shoppingengine&utm_campaign=googlebase&gclid=CjwKCAjw_47YBRBxEiwAYuKdw6x0Q5KQEZHMY2e9j90devIaIVrwNUrWgZAa0IlP_FxbnNc2wnAntBoC6XEQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

http://www.crucial.com/usa/en/compatible-upgrade-for/Apple/imac-3*1ghz-intel-quad-core-i5-%2827-inch---ddr3%29-mid-2011

https://everymac.com/ultimate-mac-lookup/?search_keywords=2429

https://everymac.com/ultimate-mac-lookup/?search_keywords=2429

____________________

https://www.macworld.com/article/3092900/macs/how-to-create-a-bootable-macos-sierra-installer-drive.html

https://www.macworld.com/article/3204672/macs/how-to-create-a-bootable-macos-high-sierra-installer-drive.html

https://www.macworld.com/article/3204672/macs/how-to-create-a-bootable-macos-high-sierra-installer-drive.html

https://macdaddy.io/install-disk-creator/

http://www.idownloadblog.com/2015/09/14/how-to-start-up-mac-from-bootable-media/

http://www.crucial.com/ProductDisplay?urlRequestType=Base&catalogId=10151&categoryId=&productId=207064&urlLangId=-1&langId=-1&top_category=&parent_category_rn=&storeId=10151

https://eshop.macsales.com/item/OWC/DIYIMACHDD11/

https://eshop.macsales.com/item/OWC/DIDIMACHDD11/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwl7nYBRCwARIsAL7O7dGQSvvVyG8CiYr6qF2DhvnbrV0J6SrLZpgLDzn6o7j_tuTX9dpnIUgaApg0EALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

https://eshop.macsales.com/item/OWC/DIYIM27SSD11/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=shoppingengine&utm_campaign=googlebase&gclid=CjwKCAjw_47YBRBxEiwAYuKdw6x0Q5KQEZHMY2e9j90devIaIVrwNUrWgZAa0IlP_FxbnNc2wnAntBoC6XEQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

http://www.crucial.com/usa/en/compatible-upgrade-for/Apple/imac-3*1ghz-intel-quad-core-i5-%2827-inch---ddr3%29-mid-2011

https://everymac.com/ultimate-mac-lookup/?search_keywords=2429

https://everymac.com/ultimate-mac-lookup/?search_keywords=DCPJ20DJDHJQ&g-recaptcha-response=03ACgFB9tWjV03BeFKHRCloYbou-TWYVivnQsDcBCB-rVyYNYnGtj9vphgD-H1X7-FEKeJjoKTGZALVUijfZpTbB-bJJlJqa_D802pyvHlnT6crtDVfD24iiTmQWxnqtfPnI5sUVZGMdMqncI9h_vHfBRH111Wurb_8C983-Gm0auGmU8Q84YWJ4-RB56uxihStS7_MXgM40q2epJMjvtd08RqK_MCHM-Lw068mojtAq5JqfIiajeMJk3xw9PkvkiFH1c4yAPIzFt6kJxOmAsQ4HMm_ahMdU1mYERje5N9xIXQhkAhy1IUE0GpsQyelGV9XWBRDatu_CJeUQY-PcXMivta0Yg54DnRDGVAah5sVFVwDWcrz9-Ll4iS35_ugZ2MAfM_H7pgt8xVgxIfCszdOKJaTYn0FeNllvLKA4Q8KtwzE3C0NPSleSoiXD_92uYG9yUGdlkfafa7

Captain America ~ June 8, 2018 ~ Vegas 2013 ~ Is it worth a Vegas Trip

OK, Jon Snow, I believe that it is time for the next stage of the process ~ Separation / Advantage / Profit ~ We know enough to win, it's time to be Selective and Smart with a focus on true ROI return on investment and profitability

Back in 2013, when I too multiple trips to Vegas to do NHL hockey and MLB baseball, I had to be Selective, It had to be worth the trip to Vegas, and my win percentage was 90 percent, and my ROI was good ~ I got nervous because I had little knowledge of NHL and MLB and sports in general

Today, I have much more sports knowledge, and trying to pick every game has been a good exercise, and I have learned alot, but I am at a point of diminishing returns, it is time to profit

Here is my plan,
Analyze all the games
Screen shot, excel spread sheet, pickmonitor

Keep learning
DraftKings

Keep doing Youtube Videos

Selective, Advantage, ROI
is it worth a trip to Vegas

Is it worth a trip to Vegas

Start date June 8. 2018
Separation / Advantage / Profit ~ We know enough to win, it's time to be Selective and Smart with a focus on true ROI return on investment and profitability

*Advantage
*Separation
*Selective
*Smart
*ROI
*Profit

Starting June 8, 2018

with a focus on true ROI return on investment and profitability

LA MD
2 _ 2 _ K * SHW

https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/megamindla/cappermetrics/Overall

https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/megamindla/cappermetrics/Overall

https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/megamindla/cappermetrics/Overall