Saturday, May 26, 2018

Soccer

https://www.mlssoccer.com/injuries

https://www.betshoot.com/asian-handicap-betting/



First, recognize
in general
Sports were Not invented
for people to profit from betting.
Therefore, the Structure of the Sport
was not set up to make a profit from betting.
There be No opportunity.
There may only be a rare sliver of an opportunity.
There be No opportunity.

ROI is the top priority
ROI = Payout + Probability

Technically -200 is Ok if there is 99% probabilty

In general,
for me right now
Payout +Plus payout
is the first priority

Points +Plus points is the second priority

+plus Payout
+plus Points

Injuries
Weather
Home / Road split
Park Factors

Injuries
Recent Performance
Recent ATS performance

Wins
Margin of Victory
Point Differential
Offense
Defense
^ all of above variables vs Quality of Opponent
adjustments for quality of team
Adjustment Bureau

Soccer Ties are annoying.
It is annoying to think that a team plays for draws.
It's a perverse incentive system.
Then could eliminate ties.
or give 1 point for tie
and give 3 point for win

anyway
the way soccer is that teams play for Draws
there is a gravity to the draw
especially the underdog time
Hey, guys let's fight for the tie !
not inspiring

use this to your advantage

in Soccer
look for Teams with +Plus Points
and +plus Payout

-110 is ok
but you prefer +100 or better+

+Plus .5  or better
is the first priority

this limits the games to look at
then do a deeper analysis

Frequently, the First Filter is the most successful
Separation
NHL and MLB year one

it's just another one unit bet
don't spend too much time on it
and move on

Just treat it like NHL stats
NBA, College Basketball, WNBA ~ all the same analysis
NHL hockey is the structure to follow
Basketball has No goalie

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